The CoWoS Chokepoint: TSMC's Quiet Monopoly On AI Memory Bandwidth

  • TSMC's advanced CoWoS and SoIC lines have become the key bottleneck for AI memory bandwidth, giving the company commanding pricing power. The foundry is replicating this 3D-packaging and wafer capacity in Arizona and Japan, reducing geopolitical concentration while tapping generous local subsidies. A conservative discounted-cash-flow model built on current free cash flow and packaging-driven growth values the ADR near $380, suggesting about 75% upside from recent levels.