Arch Capital: Attractive, Though Hurricane Season Looms

  • Arch Capital remains a buy despite recent underperformance, with shares offering 10% upside to my $99 target, reflecting 11x normalized earnings. Catastrophe losses, particularly from California wildfires, weighed on Q1 results, but ACGL still posted underwriting profits, highlighting its business resilience. Mortgage insurance profits are likely peaking, and increased catastrophe exposure adds near-term uncertainty, especially with hurricane season approaching.