Apple Is Resilient, But Buybacks Are Diverting Capital From Its Moat (Upgrade)

  • As a long-term Apple Inc. customer, I deeply understand its value proposition. However, management is facing moat degradation from AI disruption in hardware, posing price-return risk. Management would be wise to focus less on share buybacks at this point and more on plowing cash flow effectively into more aggressive M&A and better talent for R&D. I forecast that AAPL stock will achieve a 10% annual return over the next 12 months. I also forecast that Apple will achieve a 10% annual return over the next decade.