TopBuild: Strong Buy On Margin Resilience And Valuation Reset With Asymmetric Upside

  • We rate TopBuild as a 'strong buy' with a $433 PT, driven by structural margin resilience, cost discipline, and underappreciated earnings power through cycles. Branch consolidation, digital cost controls, and mix shift to higher-margin verticals underpin sustainable EBITDA margins above consensus, even in a soft housing market. Capital allocation is a key advantage: robust buybacks, disciplined M&A, and ample liquidity support both growth and shareholder returns without balance sheet strain.