Aviva: Upside To Consensus As We Wait Direct Line Acquisition

  • Aviva's acquisition of Direct Line is expected to boost EPS by 15% within two years, supporting a compelling total return of over 10%. Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations in life, retirement, and protection, with strong cash generation and a robust Solvency II ratio. We have raised our EPS projections for 2025–2028, reflecting upgraded outlooks. Given the improved business mix and conservative consensus, we reiterate our overweight rating.