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Posted by
Two Blokes Jun 11 -
Filed in
Stock
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5 views
Despite declines in many CLO-based funds this year, investors and analysts remain optimistic, citing low default rates on CLO junior debt tranches and high yields. I suspect analysts are too focused on backward-looking measures and are overlooking the many signs that the credit cycle has peaked, such as the surge in corporate debt interest-to-GDP. From last year through around 2027, a considerable portion of high-risk companies will refinance debts at much higher costs, increasing default risk if the economy slows simultaneously.
