Nvidia: After A 50% Run, Near-Term AI Spending Outlook Remains Uncertain (Rating Downgrade)

  • Since Trump's "Liberation Day," Nvidia rebounded 50% from its April lows on easing trade fears and strong AI demand, now approaching the all-time high. Although the company beat 1Q FY2026 estimates, export controls on H20 chips in China led to a $4.5 billion revenue headwind, significantly weighing on margins. The 2Q FY2026 outlook indicates the H20 headwind persists, with an $8 billion inventory write-off expected, suggesting margins will continue to decline on a QoQ basis.