Churchill Downs: Strong Buy Driven By Margin Expansion And Capital Discipline

  • We initiate on Churchill Downs Incorporated with a Strong Buy rating, based on a unique combination of margin expansion, capital discipline, and high conviction in above-consensus earnings growth. Our implied valuation is supported by a PT of $131 per share, based on 18x FY26E forward P/E multiple. We estimate FY25E diluted EPS of $6.45 and FY26E diluted EPS of $7.30, which represents 13% annualized growth, and is meaningfully ahead of consensus.