CAVA Group: Industry-Leading Growth In Q1 Raises Long-Term Questions

  • CAVA's explosive growth and industry-leading margins mirror Chipotle, but the current valuation is extremely rich at 7.6x 2025 sales and 136x earnings. Sustaining double-digit same-store sales growth is unlikely; I expect normalization to 3%-6% in 2026, which will slow overall revenue growth. CAVA's premium valuation assumes continued outperformance, but investors aren't pricing in a potential slowdown or the impact of taxes on earnings.