Shoe Carnival Is Even At Higher Risk After Tariffs, But The Stock Has Not Noticed

  • Shoe Carnival's core banner saw worsening comps and margin erosion, while Shoe Station outperformed, exposing flaws in management's macro explanation. Management is aggressively converting stores to Shoe Station, incurring significant costs, despite ongoing weakness and lack of cash preservation or buybacks. Full-year guidance remains unchanged despite poor Q1 results and rising macro uncertainty, making it appear unrealistic and overly optimistic.