Smith Douglas Homes Corp.: Rating Downgrade On Poor Near-Term Setup

  • I downgrade SDHC to a sell as demand weakens, backlog erodes, and management pulls FY25 guidance amid growing uncertainty. Margin deterioration is accelerating due to heavy reliance on incentives and rising land costs, with no clear path to recovery. Despite headline revenue growth, underlying profitability is unsustainable as SDHC sacrifices margins to preserve volume.