Apple: Quantifying The Impact Of 25% Tariffs On Gross Margins

  • Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Apple products made outside the US could erode gross margins by up to 490bps, invalidating my earlier margin expansion thesis. iPhone 16 Plus adoption rates are underperforming vs prior series, and iPhone revenue growth remains stagnant, with recent iPhone sales this year missing consensus expectations. AAPL stock is at relative fair value vs its comps so there's not much margin of safety for buys.