Why I'm Downgrading Nvidia Ahead Of Its Q1

  • Downgrading Nvidia to "Hold" from "Buy" ahead of Q1 FY2026 earnings due to emerging concerns about future price action despite recent outperformance. Q1 EPS faces pressure from H20 chip export ban charges ($5.5B initial, potentially $15B annually), impacting gross margins despite expected top-line beat and Blackwell ramp. Rising long-term competition from AMD, Chinese players like Huawei, and hyperscalers (Meta, Google) developing custom ASICs could soon impact NVDA's market dominance.