Expectations For Nvidia's Q1 '26: Earnings Beat, But A Messy Guide For Q2

  • Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to report earnings this week. Although we expect a messy guide, the expectations for Nvidia's earnings are very low (much lower than consensus indicates). During the quarter, there was a big announcement about the US restricting exports of H20s to China. As a result, Nvidia wrote off $5B of inventory, resulting in a margin hit of about ~15%. All eyes will be on commentary related to the Blackwell ramp, which we expect will more than offset the negative impact of China.