Merck: Defensive Yield Meets Long-Term Optionality

  • The market has largely priced in the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff, with Merck trading at a discount reflecting aggressive revenue erosion assumptions. Merck is actively expanding in oncology, immunology, and vaccines through acquisitions and R&D, offering long-term optionality beyond Keytruda. Gardasil's China-driven slump has limited downside left, with stable ex-China growth and male-use approval offering medium-term recovery potential.