Snowflake Q1 Preview: Revenue Model Falling Apart

  • I maintain a strong sell on Snowflake due to sharply decelerating growth, declining net revenue retention, and heavy stock-based compensation dilution. Snowflake's consumption-based revenue model is weakening, with customers buying more credits than they use, risking smaller contract renewals and future revenue declines. Valuation remains extremely stretched, with forward P/E and price-to-sales multiples far above sector medians, unjustified by slowing fundamentals and intensifying competition.