USRT: Binary Outcomes Based On Possible Nadir In CPI (Rating Downgrade)

  • The demand side has been fine, but the underperformance of some constituent parts shows that it's down to costs of capital and, therefore, inflation assumptions. The CPI reading was cool, and the continued fall in oil prices could mean meaningful help to upcoming readings that could counteract otherwise troublesome inflation expectations surveys. Inflation expectations are back to local records, and therefore we avoid iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF and other REIT bets for now, though we think the coming CPI will surprise markets.