AMD: Q1 Performance Tests My Bear Thesis, But Risks Persist, Upgrade

  • AMD's Q1 2025 beat expectations with revenue up 36% YoY to $7.4 billion and EBIT up 57% YoY to $1.78 billion. Despite strong AI CAPEX, AMD's 2025 revenue and EBIT estimates fell 3% and 11% YTD, suggesting ongoing struggles against Nvidia. U.S.-China export controls threaten a ~$1.5 billion revenue hit in 2025, including a $700 million impact in Q2.