Open Lending: Recently Oversold On Big Earnings Miss, Now Priced As An Asymmetric Bet

  • Open Lending Corporation, an asset-light software company, trades at an EV of $50mn, despite historically averaging $42mn in EBIT and returning 86% as dividends and buybacks. The company has no loan liability, a net cash position of ~$100mn, and a market cap of ~$150mn, with no current default risk. Recent $96mn revenue write-down due to higher default rates in 2021-2024 vintages - GAAP rules concentrate this write-down and make it appear worse than it fundamentally is.