The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to close March with a 6% decline, marking its worst month since September 2022 and the most challenging March since 2020. However, historical data suggests that April could bring relief.
\ud83d\udcca Key Takeaways from BTIG Analyst Jonathan Krinsky:
\u2714 Since World War II, there have been seven instances where March saw a decline greater than 3%.
\u2714 In each of those seven cases, the S&P 500 rebounded in April, averaging a 5.92% gain.
\u2714 From April to December, the market ended higher in six out of seven instances, with 2001 as the only exception (-1.05%).
\u23f3 Will History Repeat?
While Krinsky remains cautious on the market’s medium-term outlook, he acknowledges that April’s setup leans bullish based on past patterns.
\ud83d\udcc9 S&P 500 Retest & Volatility Index (VIX) Divergence
The S&P 500 retested its mid-March intraday low (5504) before bouncing back.
The VIX (Volatility Index) did not reach a new high when the S&P 500 dipped—a similar pattern was seen in January before a rally.
\ud83d\udccc What This Means for Investors:
\u2714 A historical pattern of rebounds in April could provide buying opportunities.
\u2714 The VIX divergence suggests a potential short-term bottom for equities.
\u2714 Expect volatility, but odds favor some relief for the market in the coming weeks.
To monitor market performance and technical indicators, check out these APIs:
Sector Historical API
Track sector performance to identify potential rebound opportunities.
Technical Intraday (Williams) API
Analyze short-term technical trends, including momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
While April historically favors gains after a rough March, economic uncertainties remain, including:
\u2714 Trump’s upcoming tariffs and their impact on global trade.
\u2714 March’s jobs report, which will provide insights into economic strength and Fed policy direction.
\u2714 Inflation risks and whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its interest rate stance.
\ud83d\udd0e Investor Takeaway:
Will the S&P 500 repeat its historical April rally, or will macroeconomic risks keep pressure on the market?
