NVR: Valuation Trading At A Premium Despite Macro Headwinds

  • NVR faces significant macro headwinds, with declining community count, order book, and rising cancellations indicating weak forward sales momentum and pressure on profitability. 1Q25 results show cracks with a modest revenue increase but notable declines in net income, EPS, and gross profit margin due to higher lot costs and pricing pressure. The macro environment, including elevated mortgage rates and inflation, is creating a tough setup, leading to increased cancellations and the need for heavier incentives.