Fannie Mae: A Deeply Misunderstood Story

  • Rarely has a stock been so disconnected from its intrinsic value. Years of political noise and complex structures have obscured a thesis with the most asymmetric risk/reward profile. The Trump administration is lined up to carry out the exit: cancellation of Senior Preferred Shares (SPS), partial conversion of Junior Preferreds (JPS) and privatization. The thesis is that the Treasury can cancel the SPS justifying that it has already recovered more than $300 billion in revenue vs $191 billion initial investment (>11% IRR).