Jumia: A Surprise In The Making

  • I project Jumia's Q2 2025 revenue at $42.2M, 13% above consensus, driven by real-time activity signals and FX stabilization. My bottom-up nowcasting model incorporates order trends, GMV/order, take rate, and country-level FX, pointing to a 16.4% YoY revenue increase. Consensus likely underestimates Jumia due to sparse coverage, conservative assumptions, and lack of real-time demand integration.