Telesat Corporation Q2 Earnings Preview: Too Much Execution Risk

  • Telesat's stock surged on government funding and LEO contract headlines, but I remain skeptical due to major execution risks. Lightspeed backlog is meaningless until launches begin in late 2026, yet Telesat must front massive capex while leaning on rival SpaceX for rides. The satellite-comms market may grow ~10% a year, but Starlink, Viasat, and Amazon Kuiper are expanding far faster, making it tough for Telesat to steal share.