First BanCorp: Bond Market Turbulence, Expected Tourism Slowdown Seems Priced-In

  • I'm expecting loan growth to decelerate this year, as a possible recession in the mainland United States can hurt the tourism industry in Puerto Rico. Low-yielding securities are set to mature this year, which will provide First BanCorp a good opportunity to reinvest in higher-yielding assets, thereby raising the margin. I'm raising my provision expense estimate and, therefore, reducing my earnings estimate for 2025.