BGR: Energy Prices Surge On Geopolitical Risks

  • Recent geopolitical escalations, including Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, have driven oil prices and the BGR fund sharply higher, invalidating my prior bearish thesis. Heightened geopolitical risk has added a significant risk premium to oil prices, making it difficult to remain bearish on energy equities in BGR's portfolio. While these risk-driven price spikes are historically unsustainable, the economic outlook now appears stagflationary, favoring relative outperformance by energy and resource stocks.