The global semiconductor industry is set to expand by 9.5% in 2025, driven by AI and data center chip demand, according to ING analysts. While this forecast trails the 11.2% projection from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), it still exceeds the long-term growth outlook provided by ASML (AS:ASML).
Key Drivers of Semiconductor Growth
1. AI and Data Center Demand
- NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains a dominant player in the AI chip space, though recent earnings disappointed investors.
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) reported $5 billion in AI chip revenue for 2024 and expects strong double-digit growth in 2025.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TW:2330) predicts a mid-40% CAGR for AI accelerators over the next five years, well above its overall growth outlook.
2. Custom Chip (ASIC) Momentum
- The rising demand for application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) in data centers is expected to benefit companies like:
- Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO)
- Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL)
- This shift may pose a competitive threat to traditional chipmakers such as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and AMD.
3. Memory and Logic Chip Growth
- While ING expects near-term caution regarding memory chip prices, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and leading-edge logic chips remains robust.
Lagging Segments in 2025
- Smartphones, PCs, and automotive chips face headwinds from price pressure and slowing consumer demand.
- Samsung Electronics (KS:005930) has already revised its AI semiconductor outlook downward.
Market Outlook and Investment Insights
- AI infrastructure and data centers continue to drive semiconductor innovation and revenue growth.
- Investors may see opportunities in AI-centric players like NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC, while companies capitalizing on custom chip demand, such as Broadcom and Marvell, are also well-positioned.
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