Introduction
Shares of Puma SE (ETR
UMG) (OTCMMAF) tumbled over 24% on Wednesday after the German sportswear giant slashed its full-year 2025 profit guidance, falling significantly below market expectations. The company cited weak demand in key markets like the U.S. and China, coupled with geopolitical and economic challenges.
Key Highlights of Puma's Revised Forecast
1. Revenue Growth Cut
- Puma now expects low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth for 2025.
- This is a significant downgrade from the 6.7% consensus forecast.
2. Sharp EBIT Downgrade
- New adjusted EBIT forecast: €520M - €600M (vs. €700M consensus).
- First-quarter sales expected to decline in the low single digits (vs. previous +6.9% expected growth).
- Q1 adjusted EBIT revised to €70M (vs. €189M consensus).
- Including one-time cost efficiency program expenses, full-year EBIT could drop to €445M - €525M, nearly 30% below expectations.
3. Investor & Analyst Reaction
- Barclays & Morgan Stanley flagged uncertainty over whether Puma's lowered guidance is a cautious approach or signals deeper macroeconomic challenges.
- Retailer concerns over Puma’s sportstyle segment losing momentum, with risks of order cancellations if the Speedcat lineup underperforms in Q2.
Key Risks & Market Outlook
- Weaker Consumer Demand: Slowing sales in China & U.S. impact performance.
- Economic & Geopolitical Uncertainty: Puma warns of a challenging macroeconomic environment in 2025.
- Competitive Pressures: Rival brands like Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Adidas (ETR:ADS) continue to gain market share.
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Conclusion
Puma’s profit warning signals potential macro-driven weakness in the retail sector. While the company is focusing on cost efficiency, investors remain cautious about its growth momentum and order book stability. The next quarterly earnings report and Speedcat rollout performance will be critical in shaping Puma’s near-term trajectory.
