The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% in its upcoming February 26 meeting, with only one rate cut anticipated this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
\u2705 Current Interest Rate: 2.25% (one-day repurchase rate)
\u2705 Expected Decision (Feb 26): No change in rates
\u2705 Expected Cut in 2025: 25 bps cut by mid-year to 2.00% (majority consensus)
\ud83d\udd39 Strong Economic Growth: Thailand's economy expanded 3.2% in Q4 2024, the highest in over two years, reducing the need for immediate rate cuts.
\ud83d\udd39 Inflation Under Control: Inflation remains within the BOT’s 1-3% target range, lowering pressure for monetary easing.
\ud83d\udd39 Policy Buffer Considerations: BOT is likely to preserve rate-cut flexibility amid global uncertainties.
\ud83d\udd39 Government Stimulus Measures: The Thai government’s cash handout scheme, launched in September, is still being evaluated for its economic impact.
\ud83d\udcca Economist Forecasts (Mid-2025):
\u2714\ufe0f 17 of 23 analysts expect a 25 bps cut to 2.00% by June.
\u2714\ufe0f 2 analysts predict a 1.75% rate.
\u2714\ufe0f 4 analysts see no change in rates for 2025.
\ud83d\udcb0 Baht Exchange Rate: A stable policy rate could support the Thai baht (THB) against volatility in regional currencies.
\u2708\ufe0f Tourism & Trade: No immediate rate cuts signal that Thailand’s tourism and export sectors remain strong enough without additional monetary stimulus.
\ud83d\udcc9 Stock Market & Bonds: A future rate cut could boost equities and bond prices, but the timing remains uncertain.
The BOT’s cautious stance reflects Thailand’s improving economy but also recognizes global economic risks. While a rate cut is expected later in 2025, the central bank is likely to wait for clearer signs of economic softening before taking action.
\ud83d\udd0d For real-time financial data on Thailand’s markets, explore FMP’s APIs.
